December 31, 2003
1. Employment Market Turbulence. More secure employees will stimulate
unprecedented churning in the labor marketplace. This turbulence will
threaten corporate stability and capacity to serve customers, particularly
for employers who took employees for granted in recent years.
2. Shift to Sellers’ Market in Labor. Employers will face the most severe
shortage of skilled labor in history. Corporations will become more
aggressive to attract and hold top talent. People will change jobs to find
their personal Employer of Choice®.
3. Fluid International Job Movement. Economic issues and skilled labor
shortages in the United States will move even more jobs to other countries.
However, employers will discover that some situations are unsatisfactory and
jobs will be returned.
4. Retirement will Evaporate. Traditional retirement will continue its
metamorphosis. Retirees will move into jobs in other fields, start their own
businesses, and engage in other activities to remain active and productive.
5. Training and Education will Accelerate. Corporate development programs
will reach out to new employees and existing staff. Demand for vocational
education will grow. Educators will be challenged to make major changes to
produce graduates ready to be productive in a faster-moving world.
6. Leadership Deficit will be Crippling. As employers discover serious
inadequacies, leadership development will take on new importance. Up and
coming managers will be expected to learn and practice leadership skills
before assuming new positions.
7. Flexible Employment will gain Popularity. As more people work flexible
hours, work from home, and use technology to work for employers in distant
locations, traditional work arrangements will further erode.
8. Casual is Here to Stay. Despite some movement to return to more formality
in the workplace, informality will dominate in clothing, culture, office
décor, and workplace structural design.
9. Advantage of Agility. Companies will re-create themselves to be more
agile, nimble, and responsive to customers and employees. Relationships,
resources, knowledge, and speed will become strategic weapons.
10. Workers Becoming Independent. More people will become independent
contractors, selling their services on a project, contract, or set-term
basis. This movement will stimulate emergence of specialized staffing firms
and electronic communities to connect workers with employers.
Herman Trend Alerts are written by Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, strategic
business futurists, Certified Management Consultants, authors, and
professional speakers. Comments are welcome; many are posted on the
www.hermangroup.com website. Archived Herman Trend Alerts can be viewed at
Copyright 2003 by The Herman Group–reproduction for publication is
encouraged, with the following attribution: From “Herman Trend Alert,” by
Roger Herman and Joyce Gioia, Strategic Business Futurists. (800) 227-3566