These two graphs may look quite harmless, but actually together they illustrate a dilemma that faces many hospitality and service companies today.

Diminishing returns

The blue curve illustrates the phenomenon know as diminishing returns. Well known in the sports world but also observed in the business world. In short it is the experience you have when you start out on something and relatively quickly get a sense of progress – but once you have dealt with the ‘low hanging fruit’ it gets harder and harder and you need to put in more and more effort but at the same time you are getting less and less in return.
Shaving 1/10 of a second off the world record takes a lot of work

In a big picture perspective my experience is that the service industries in general went through significant innovation and improvements up through the 90‘s but that in the 00’s we have by and large, mainly seen incremental improvements. Slightly better versions of already well known ideas. In a sense several service sectors are finding them selves in a ‘cul-de-sac’ conceptually.

Speed of Change

Opposite this, is the red curve. A model that especially Ray Kurzweil has used to draw our attention to the fact that change is not linear, slow and orderly. But change is occurring around us at an exponential speed. And if you listen to the futurists we ain’t seen noting yet. We are just at the being of this curve, on our way into the steep climb. (If you are not sure that the speed of change is exponential, try and locate a mobile phone that is 5 years old and compare it to the one you have now)

You can see a great clip with Kurzweil explaining all this here

You may even feel that you are not experiencing big changes in your own company just now – but that you are doing things in more or less the same way that you have done for a while – well then there is all the more cause for alarm because you can be sure that your clients are experiencing exponential changes in their lives – and you will not be part of their stakeholder map very soon if you do not realize that.

If you feel that things are under control – you are probably not going fast enough”
Mario Andretti (World champion racing driver)

Where is your focus?

When we look at these two graphs together – it suddenly becomes very clear that the way forward is not to put a huge effort into becoming perfect. I.e working very hard on what we already do in order to get just a little bitt better. Firstly the effort invested will probably not produce more than the famous incremental improvements, but the real danger is that after all that effort we risk getting really good at something that is no longer needed!

So ask your self: What is your focus: Perfection or Differentiation?

This post was very much inspired by this post by Seth Godin

We will see a new leadership role that will include all of what we already do and know – but that will also add completely new dimensions to what we have hitherto perceived as the leadership role.

A few sites and studies have recently caught my attention on this subject:

The Bertelsmann Foundation has published a report under the title “Web 2.0 and Leadership” – you will find it here.

From the introduction I quote:

“Need for a new leadership paradigm.

In the two decades of rising Web impact, the need for a new paradigm for leadership has become more and more apparent. Seven indicators of this needed shift are:
Leadership as an activity rather than a role
Leadership as a collective phenomenon
Need for individual leaders at higher levels of development
From organization-centric to network-centric leadership
From organizations as ―machines‖ to organizations as ―organisms‖
From planning and controlling to learning and adapting
From Generation X to Generation Y

The paradigm that was dominant until at least the early 1990s assumed that leadership highlighted the dynamic between designated ―leaders‖ and ―followers‖ pursuing shared goals. At its best this paradigm allowed for participatory and shared leadership, but inevitably singled out the lone leader as a key player, tacitly reinforcing deeply-rooted myths around the importance of ―heroic‖ individual leaders and the usefulness of ―command and control‖ styles of leading.

While situations will continue to exist that are well-suited to this approach, it has become obvious that in the world that is emerging, the leadership resulting from this paradigm is increasingly limited.

A new leadership paradigm seems to be emerging with an inexorable shift away from one-way, hierarchical, organization-centric communication toward two-way, network-centric, participatory, and collaborative leadership styles. Most of all a new mindset seems necessary, apart from new skills and knowledge. All the tools in the world will not change anything if the mindset does not allow and support change.”

PriceWaterhouse a while back already published the report ‘How leadership must change to meet the future’ its conclusion came back to me when thinking of this subject :

“The strategic revolutions in today’s rapidly changing business environment clearly mandate a new leadership framework. To capitalize on developing trends and drive future success, organizations must begin building leadership strength now in the four leadership success quotients: agility, authenticity, talent, and sustainability.

But the formula for achieving leadership success is a moving target.

The leadership success quotients will evolve. Nevertheless, complacency is not an option. To quote an executive from our CEO survey, “Global trends are hitting faster, harder, and wider, with results that can be both exhilarating and devastating for companies, industries, and entire regions.
”The winners of tomorrow will be those organizations with strong leaders who demonstrate agility, authenticity, connectivity to their talent, and sustainability. They will use their skills to remain at the ready, anticipate and harness the power of change, and stay ahead of the shifting business environment.”

And finally I discovered a the blog of Ann Holman yesterday where she has published a post entitled “The emergence of social leadership”’

“If our customers and employees are demanding social experiences, social networking, social marketing, collaboration, co creation, connection, attention and a very human, intimate relationships with our organizations, our leadership style, behavior and delivery is going to have to modify and refine itself considerably. Future leaders will not direct the work but enable and facilitate the new skills people are acquiring.”

and then the follow up post from Ann Leadership in 2011 and beyond….

… leaders of the future no matter what product or service they offer, what geographical location or industry or sector, are going to need to have in depth, responsive and critical skills in enabling and facilitating its employees and customers to ‘bang their heads together’ on a regular basis.”

That means that future leaders will need to master the 4C’s:

Content – customers become creators as do employees

Collaboration – refers to the idea that social media facilitates the aggregation of small individual actions into meaningful collective results. Collective action goes one step further and uses online engagement to initiate meaningful action. Collective action can take the form of signing online petitions, fundraising, tele-calling, or organizing an offline protest or event.

Community – Most people understand that a community that has a large number of members (size) who have strong relationships and frequent interactions with each other (strength) is better than a community that doesn’t. However, a community is more than the sum total of its members and their relationships.
People don’t build relationships with each other in a vacuum. A vibrant community is built around a social object that is meaningful for its members. The social object can be a person, a place, a thing or an idea.

Collective Intelligence – refers to the idea that the social web enables us to not only aggregate individual actions, but also run sophisticated algorithms on them and extract meaning from them. The great thing about collective intelligence is that it becomes easier to extract meaning from a community as the size and strength of the community grow. If the collective intelligence is then shared back with the community, the members find more value in the community, and the community grows even more, leading to a virtuous cycle.

And if you want to take and even deeper dive – I can recommend reading “The power of Pull” and keeping and eye out for John Hagels blogs posts at edgeperspectives …

Something is defiantly cooking… ( Finally .. ;-) )

While the fundamentals of hospitality remain steadfast, the
context wrapping around the offer of hospitality services has
changed tremendously, and it will continue to change. In looking
to the year ahead, there are any number of possible, and even
a few probable, futures that we should consider. As we do this,
it is vital that we do not ignore the forces of change around us
that are constantly molding our story of tomorrow as we write it.

In the article Chris Luebkeman asks some poignant questions that are suitable for your next future scenarios planning session :

• What if energy were free ? What if it were rationed ? Or each
individual had a personal resource account ?
• What would happen if oil hit US$ 200 per barrel ? What will
happen when carbon is taxed ?
• What if wealth continues to flow East and South ? What if
disposable income continues to disappear in the US
and Europe ?
• What will the new wave of tourists bring ? What will the
growing middle-class Indians or Chinese expect in a hotel ?
• What does a property look like that is fit for Korean
teenagers ?
• What if the « staycation » replaces the global grand tour ?

As you answer each of these questions, consider how our industry will not just survive, but thrive

About The Hotel Yearbook: The Hotel Yearbook is a uniquely forward-looking annual publication. Each year, dozens of CEOs and other senior executives from the hotel industry worldwide, as well as leading analysts and observers, use this platform to share their expectations for the coming twelve months. Each of the 70+ contributors looks specifically at his or her area of expertise, describing the likely developments for the year ahead. As a whole, The Hotel Yearbook thus offers readers a comprehensive overview of the trends and factors that will have an impact on the performance of the hotel business in the year to come – as perceived by the industry’s leaders themselves. For more information visit www.hotel-yearbook.com.

In today’s world of networked individuals, new behaviors are emerging. Some are creating new rules and systems of behavior, even within face-to-face experiences. Some are defying old patterns of beliefs.

Here are some of the questions you should be asking our house anthropologist to consider:

* What patterns of attendee behavior are you observing?
* Where are attendees congregating?
* Where are they not congregating?
* What venue and environmental pressures are shaping the attendee experience?
* What parts of your venue are attendees avoiding?
* What are attendees carrying with them to sessions?
* How are attendees communicating with each other?
* How are attendees reacting to the flow of the conference experience?
* What are attendees feeling about this experience?
* How are attendees behaving in education sessions?

This idea is further elaborated in a great post from Velvet Chainsaw Consulting here

The big eye openers for me where:
1) It is not an either or but a both and – it is a polarity, and needs to be managed constructively
2) If you are excellent at one or the either don’t turn down the volume on what you are good at – start working on the part that needs improving
3) The task of a manager is a continuous process of balancing power and love

There is a great interview with Adam Kahane in S+B you can read it here

”Power properly understood is nothing but the ability to achieve purpose. It is the strength required to bring about social, political and economical change…

And one of the great problems of history is that the concepts of love and power have usually been contrasted as opposites – polar opposites – so that love is identified with the resignations of power and power with the the denial of love.

Now we have to get this thing right.

What we need to realize is that power with out love is reckless and abusive and love with out power is sentimental and anemic. It is precisely this collision of immoral power with powerless morality which constitutes the major crisis of our time.”

Martin Luther king Jr.

In spite of the popularity of new electronic media, we expect the face-to-face meetings industry to continue to grow and to continue to contribute more to the US GDP. We also believe that were the studies available for other parts of the world, we would see similar, if not greater, increases.

It just reminded me of a few other famous quotes in history:

“I think there is a world market for as many as 5 computers.” – Thomas Watson, head of IBM,1943.

“The horse is here to stay, but the automobile is only a novelty.” – President of Michigan Savings Bank, 1903, advising Henry Ford’s lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Company.

“Television won’t be able to hold onto any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” – Darryl F Zanuck, 1946.

As we all know there are many more like this.

My point is, yes we would all love to see f2f meetings grow, but the reality is that most of the professionals that I talk too are experiencing exactly the opposite. That be people in the meetting industry or their clients. Big corporations are talking about ‘travel avoidance’ as a way to cut costs. IKEA has an internal slogan ‘Meet more travel less’ – encouraging employees to use the electronic media for instead of traveling.

Personally I have never ever received so many offers of webinars and other online forms of ‘meeting’ that I do at the moment.

Yes we all prefer the quality of a a face to face meeting, the same way we prefer a delicious home cooked meal to industrialized fast food – but if what we prefer was equal to what we do there would be no fast food business…

In a report published by the Center for Hospitality Research at Cornell University with the title ‘Hospitality Business Models confront the future of meetings‘ Cisco outline how they have chalked up $400 million in direct savings and $150 million in productivity gains by switching as much of their travel/meeting actives as possible to ‘TelePresence‘.

The report also mentions research by Gartner Inc. that video conferencing will replace 2,1 Million airline seats by 2012 representing a revenue decline of $3,5 Billion for the travel and Hospitality industries.

And Meeting review wrote this :

2010 has been the year that everyone suddenly started to take virtual meetings and events seriously, indeed the mainstream industry is even starting to see them no longer as a threat but instead as a way of extending the reach, the audience and, importantly, the revenues for their events.

See the full article here

So what to do?

The article suggest that Hotels should invest in video conference equipment so that they can offer this service to clients. I am not so sure that is the way to go. If we look back some years ago LCD projectors where very expensive and as a consequence only the largest companies had them – in the beginning.
Smaller companies would go to hotels and rent one. But soon the price of LCD’s came tumbling down and suddenly they where not so special anymore. Today we all have our own. And the fact that a hotel can provide one does not exactly constitute a competitive advantage

My prediction is that the same will happen with video conferencing – companies will get their own kits and virtual conference room in hotels will become obsolete.

A better plan might be to leap frog past that and take a look at the structure of the meeting market as it is emerging.

One way to do that could be to map it on a 2×2 matrix with number of participants on the one axis and the degree of interaction from monologue to deep dialog on the other axis .

That could roughly look something like this:

In the bottom half of this matrix there is mainly emphasis on one way info transmission, possibly with a few questions from the floor. This type of meeting is handled brilliantly by various tech solutions and there will be no stopping that trend developing even further. In that sense this type of meeting will slowly disappear from the traditional venues and move to virtual (also because participants are thoroughly tired of attending this type of meeting or conference).

But on the top half of the matrix where the focus is on interaction /participation and deep dialog, high tech solutions do not do the job very well. As Marchall McLuhan said the more complex the message the more complex a medium do you need, and the most complex we have is f2f.

Now if you are providing meeting facilities – go have a look at your breakout room, your standard meeting room set up etc. Are the facilities that you provide conducive to dialog or to monologue?

To me the gray cloud on the drawing represents yesterdays meetings, they will be taken over by high tech solutions and will not require f2f and the yellow cloud represents tomorrows meetings space where we solve the complex and tricky stuff through collaboration and involvement.

The reason i have the number of participant in the matrix is that i see a sweet spot in the 10 to 75 segment ( upper right corner of the matrix) because when you move to very large groups ( upper left of the matrix), and think dialog then tech shows its face aging ( Twiter, FB Etc)

When i presented this to one of my hotelier friends his response was, “but 80% of our meeting business today is Cinema- or U-table set up.” Yes I know i have seen that as well. But if you plot types of meeting on a bell curve then, at the top of the curve (mainstream) you will find the cinema set up and the U-table – fast forward a year or two and where is what was at the top of the top of the bell curve now?
Going down, fast.
At the beginning of the bell curve we now find Dialog, participatory meeting Art of Hosting etc. Where will that be in 2 years time? On its way up, heading for main stream status.

In summary it is going to be increasingly difficult for meeting facility providers to justify that they are providing value when it comes to ‘monologue’ meetings. It can be done better and cheaper with technology – and that type of meeting is a god case for Travel Avoidance”

Where they can make a huge difference and add value is by learning how to provide space and surroundings that are conducive to deep dialog in the broadest sense – and believe me that is not a banqueting room set up cinema style

The new D’Espresso on Madison Avenue (at 42nd) in New York has received more media attention than is generally awarded to a tiny coffee shop in this world of millions of new coffee shops.

The reason for the attention is the fun design by the Manhattan-based nemaworkshop, a team of designers and architects that has created numerous cool retail and hospitality concepts. Founder Anurag Nema took the idea of a coffee shop that looks like a library – giving a nod to the nearby New York Public Library’s Bryant park branch – and turned it on its side. The walls are not lined with books but the floors and ceiling are. Except that it is all an illusion, a life-size image of books printed on custom tiles. Pendant lighting does not hang from the ceiling; it sticks out from the walls.

See the photos here D’Espresso

Maybe it is more than a buzz – maybe it is a fundamental shift..

It started out some years back as just a murmur or a slight rumbling from the initiated. But lately is has slowly risen in volume and my prediction is that before too long it will have gathered further momentum to become an unavoidable roar.

The shift is the call for ‘Purpose’

In a world with limited natural resources, huge inequality, and financial scandals galore, it is no longer comme il faut to do stuff just for money. That applies not just to companies that produce goods and services but is increasingly demanded by individuals as well – a job is no longer just for the money.

A new generation is emerging (see the generation M manifesto). They demand that we do stuff for a reason and it better be a good one – and just in case you are in doubt money is an outcome not a purpose.

The first time this was brought to my attention was 4 years a go sitting on a tree stump in the Rocky Mountains with my friend Lothar Friis. We were having a profound talk about life, business, gigs and all that. And Lothar said “you know in the end it all boils down to one thing: Purpose. If you have a clear purpose you will almost always bee successful in what you do.” That chat stayed with me rumbling around in my subconscious and I started becoming more aware of purpose as a concept.

The next time I noticed purpose was reading Fred Kofmans book Conscious Business.

A conscious business seeks to promote the intelligent pursuit of happiness in all its stakeholders. It produces sustainable, exceptional performance through the solidarity of its community and the dignity of each member.

In the book he says: “People do not consider Business an area to demonstrate their values .. Why not?”. Kofman asks you to think about a person you admire. Why do you admire that person? List the traits on a pice of paper (try it now by the way) What are the values on that list – probably words like integrity, honesty, caring, love, selfishness, you go on… Is that how business and work relations are run – probably not in most cases. Why not ?

He has a point why can’t we run our business with the same set of values that we would like to see in our local community. Well, five year ago you would be told that that is not the best way to maximize profits, but now it seem it just may turnout to be the only way to maximize profits – read on.

Then I read Peter Block’s “The answer to how is Yes” This opened my eyes to the need to ask ‘why’ before we ask ‘how’. The penny dropped. When we ask ‘Why’ we are looking at purpose (If you have not read it please do – it is a very important book.)

“We too often ask “How?” which focuses too closely on the practical way of getting something done and is actually a subconscious expression of society’s emphasis on control of people, time, and cost. Instead, our concentration should be focused on “Why?”. In other words, we need to pay attention to what really matters to us personally, from heart-felt commitments in our private lives to the creation of projects in the workplace. To be able to act on what matters, explains Block, we must reclaim specific qualities, such as intimacy and idealism. Then we can tackle purposeful work as if we were social architects seeking engagement and change.” (Amazon.com)

In 2006 Nikos Mourkogiannis published the book ‘Purpose – the starting point of great companies’ – a book that according to himself influenced John Mackey in his thinking and contributed to the creation of a new ‘movement’ called Conscious Capitalism that now holds thoughtful, exclusive by-invitation-only gatherings (Introduction to Conscious Capitalism).

FOLLOW YOUR HEART – John Mackey

In 2007 the book Firms of Endearment: How World-Class Companies Profit from Passion and Purpose is published – a book that was later adopted as the foundation for The Conscious Capitalism Institute (CCI)

“Conscious Capitalism is defined to have three elements; that companies should have a purpose transcending profit maximization, are managed for the benefit of all stakeholders and led by evolved, conscious servant leaders.”

By and by purpose has come out of the shadows of idealism and is going mainstream – obviously the financial meltdown of 2007/2008 has help this thinking a lot and contributed to more people have asking the crucial question: Why do we do what we do?

At TED 2010 Simon Sinek presented his ‘Golden Circle’ and showed that the way to the consumers heart starts with ‘why’ and not ‘how’.- Not as new a concept as he would like us to think but he deliveries the message in a very elegant and convincing way. Sinek has also written a great book on this called ‘Start With WHY‘ that I can highly recommend.

SIMON SINEK

Then this spring Umair Haque made the case on his Harvard Business Review blog that doing good is not just good per see – it is just better business. The better Business Manifesto and Why Betterness Is Good Business

Clayton M. Christensen, the Author of The Innovators Dilemma, (also on a HBR blog) then shows us all how important purpose is on a personal level. How Will You Measure Your Life?

“Don’t worry about the level of individual prominence you have achieved; worry about the individuals you have helped become better people. This is my final recommendation: Think about the metric by which your life will be judged, and make a resolution to live every day so that in the end, your life will be judged a success”

And finally this summer Dave Ulrich – not exactly a tree hugger – is out with a new book: The why of Work. Arguing in essence that if your employees don’t understand what you greater purpose is and how they can contribute to that they will be less motivated.

This morning in Fast Company we can read : Alex Bogusky Tells All: He Left the World’s Hottest Agency to Find His Soul

“Alex Bogusky, advertising Dadaist, postmodern media manipulator, pop-culture Houdini, daddy of 21st-century advertising, and now a seeker of meaning on the dirt path of life “ .. “ I guess I just don’t aspire to corporate legacy. I’m convinced that the greatness that matters more is the greatness people achieve through helping each other, through collaborating, more than the greatness that’s achieved by grabbing all you can or getting all you can or building all you can”

If you haven’t heard the cry for purpose – you are not listening – and very soon your customers (and your potential employees) are going to be asking you: “What is your purpose by the way?”. And if you don’t have a compelling answer, they will find someone else who does…

Can webconferences, videoconferences and other virtual meetings really take the place of face-to-face contact?
With travel budgets slashed in the wake of recessionary belt-tightening, companies are increasingly turning to technology as a substitute for in-person contact. Yet business executives overwhelmingly agree that face-to-face meetings are not just preferable but necessary for building deeper, more profitable bonds with clients and business partners and maintaining productive relationships with co-workers.

Predictably the answer to their own survey is that 84% prefer F2F meetings.

But is that the right question to ask if you are trying to understand what is happening in the meeting industry?

Not in my mind it isn’t!

This is the kind of question Kodak asked photographers 5-8 years back: Do you think that digital photos will replace film based photography? No way they all hollered.
This is the question big newspaper publishers asked thier readers 3-4 years ago: “Can you imagine not having a daily morning news paper in print form” Since then a large number of them no longer exist.
This is the question publishing houses where asked 24 months ago “Will the eReader replace books?” – that was before Amazon sold 2 million Kindel’s in 6 months. Now they are not so sure. More on eReaders here

But the reality is this:

This is borne out in Forbes Insights survey, where 58% of respondents said they were travelling for business less today than they were at the beginning of the recession in January 2008, with more than a third (34%) indicating they were travelling much less frequently.

This is my point, it may not be what they prefer – but this is what they do – not because it is better but because it is cheaper, and more convenient.

Surevy: would you prefer to fly Business or Turist?… No brainer right?
But why is tourist class then jam packed and Business reduced to 2 rows that are half empty on many European flights? It is not what we would prefer. It is what we do.

The big danger is that we in the industry stick our heads in the sand as a result of surveys like this – pat each other on the back and knowingly nod to each other: “f2f meeting are better – we know that – they know that. All will return to normal soon, you just wait and see….”

I don’t think so

That is what KODAK thought

The question we should be asking is : Is the market broken? – see this by Seth Godin: “What every mass marketer needs to learn from Groucho Marx”

See also my previous post on this subject: Is the meeting industry doomed?

Read the Forbes Insight survey here

What do you think?